The spatiotemporal distribution and influence mechanism of cholera epidemic in Hubei Province before 1949

Keywords: Cholera,Hubei,Spatiotemporal distribution,Influence mechanism
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

Based on the historical data of cholera and environment，using M-K test, wavelet analysis and center of gravity model, the spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of cholera in Hubei Province in the past 100 years (AD1850-AD1949) were analyzed. The study found:(1)The frequency of cholera in Hubei Province in the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China was not high，but since 1934, there has been a sudden increase in the frequency of cholera, and the frequency of cholera has increased significantly. The 10-year scale cycle is the most significant, which is the first main cycle.
(2)The distribution area of cholera is constantly increasing. The southeast of Hubei, centered on Hankou City and Wuchang City, has always been the most severe cholera epidemic area.
(3) The natural environment, secondary disasters, and social and cultural environments are intertwined and jointly affect the reproduction and expansion of cholera. Annual average temperature, river network density and population density are the endogenous factors of cholera epidemic, among which annual average temperature is the endogenous factor that most affects the level of cholera epidemic. The natural environment, secondary disasters and human and social factors are the exogenous factors of the epidemic level of cholera in counties of Hubei Province. Overall, the increase in precipitation, flood disasters, road network construction, increase in distance near roads, and the occurrence of wars will increase the prevalence of cholera, while the increase in average altitude, increase in the distance near rivers, and drought disasters will reduce cholera popularity level.