Spatial Microsimulation and Activity Allocation for Examining COVID-19 Vaccine Access Profiles

Keywords: spatial microsimulation, synthetic population, activity allocation, resource access
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

A key challenge during the initial distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States early 2021 was equitable access. Here, we explore this issue relative to how patterns of life and differences in individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status affected these access disparities using Likeness, a spatial microsimulation toolkit. This toolkit enables the synthesis of highly attributed individual agents based on the American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public-Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) that are allocated to daytime activity spaces while considering network location. Here, we create synthetic populations from the 2020 ACS PUMS 5-year estimates then simulate commutes for food service workers before evaluating potential access to vaccination sites from home and work locations, as well as along workers’ optimal commute routes. Using these results, we generate access profiles that can be interpreted through socioeconomic characteristics.

The Lincoln, Nebraska Metropolitan Statistical Area has served as a testbed for this work for its (1) compactness and isolation, (2) mixed urban and rural populations, and (3) availability of multiple modes of commuting data. Results from a preliminary simulation experiment suggest that bicycle and vehicle-based commutes, particularly in downtown areas and along major commercial corridors, experienced overall better access to COVID-19 healthcare services than public transit and walking commutes. In this study, we expand our focus across multiple simulations to further explore healthcare access disparities. Future analyses of accessibility, equity, and public health interventions are planned that will build on the Likeness toolkit in increasingly larger and more diverse metropolitan areas.