Mapping the extent of Atlantic White Cedar throughout southern New Jersey using predictive habitat distribution modelling

Keywords: biogeography, conifer trees, species distribution models, ecology
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Understanding ecosystem change in the face of anthropogenic climate change is essential for the future management of these systems. Atlantic White Cedar, Chamaecyparis thyoides, is located along the Eastern coast of the United States and has been impacted by climate change through increasing storm frequency and intensity and rising sea levels. Understanding the current distribution of this species is important for mitigating future loss of the species by knowing where healthy stands are located today. In this study, I modelled Atlantic White Cedar presence throughout Southern New Jersey, an area that experienced a large disturbance, Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This works uses predictive habitat distribution modelling using both topographic and remotely sensed variables to show the distribution of Atlantic White Cedar in 2021 and shows what variables are driving the presence of these trees throughout this area. This model could be exported to other areas along the coast, increasing our knowledge of where Atlantic White Cedar stands are currently located, allowing for better monitoring of their health and potential changes in the future. Atlantic White Cedar is being negatively impacted by anthropogenic climate change and this work aims to aid in better understanding the locations and dynamics of Atlantic White Cedar stands for management and mitigation of future loss of this species.