Socio-environmental determinants of maize price volatility in southern Africa

Keywords: Food Systems, Agriculture, Food Price, Climate, Africa
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

Climate variability and population growth are two of the primary drivers of food prices, and broader food system sustainability. Climate conditions can impact agricultural production seasonally and over longer time horizons whereas population growth results in more mouths to feed. Together, these represent a compound hazard that links social and environmental changes in a rural-urban food system. Maize is the staple crop grown in southern Africa, and most of it is cultivated during a single growing season. The seasonal pattern of precipitation leads to general patterns in maize production, stocks, and sale prices. During harvest, maize supply increases and prices typically decline. Throughout the lean season, prices typically rise, until the following harvest causes prices to decline once again. The extent to which this price pattern holds, however, depends on a complex interaction of climate and socio-economic factors within a food system. Here we present an analysis of monthly market-level maize prices between 2003 and 2019 for urban markets in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. We analyze the effect of growing-season climate conditions, population, and geographic proximity on post-harvest maize price volatility. We find high year-to-year variability in maize prices that are associated with a variable climate. Furthermore, we show that smaller urban areas and urban areas in regions of agricultural production are more exposed to maize price volatility. Both climate and population projections indicate the likelihood of increased stress on rural-urban food systems, and these results highlight food system vulnerabilities to environmental variability and change.