Places Left Behind? Declining Inner Suburbs in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, 1981–2016

Keywords: Suburban poverty; neighbourhood change; uneven development
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

North American inner suburbs are facing disinvestment, dilapidation, impoverishment, and, in some cases, population loss. In transitioning from the Fordist to Post-Fordist era, new patterns of zonal and neighbourhood inequalities, particularly in the inner suburbs have emerged across the Greater Toronto Area of Canada as a result of structural adjustments in global capitalism that have positioned Toronto as a burgeoning global city. These patterns occur unequally across the inner suburbs; varying across axes of age, gender, income, education, employment, housing, and race. Thereafter, two key research questions emerge: what are the socio-economic determinants of inner-suburban decline, and what neighbourhood typologies emerged in the inner suburbs that position them as places characterized by extreme inequalities?

To answer these questions, the paper conducts a regression analysis of socio-economic variables that captures changes in demographic and socio-economic status to delineate the determinants of inner-suburban decline in Toronto, Canada, including their degree, significance, and geographical variation, and to identify potential casual relationships. Cluster analysis was also conducted to delineate the new neighbourhood typologies that emerged pre-Pandemic in Toronto.

The regression results indicate that age, concentrations of immigrants, and purpose-built rental high-rises explained a significant proportion of declining household incomes in inner-suburban neighbourhoods. The presence of artists as a determinant of increasing household incomes in certain inner-suburban neighbourhoods suggests ongoing gentrification that threatens to displace less affluent households. Finally, the cluster analysis revealed the emergence of racialized, impoverished neighbourhood typologies characterized by higher concentrations of immigrants, along with lower-income neighbourhoods being ‘recaptured’ by capitalized groups.