Land Use Projections and Vulnerability in the Broad Meadow Brook Wildlife Sanctuary, Worcester, Massachusetts

Keywords: land change analysis, TerrSet, wetland restoration, future projections, land parcel conservation
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 03:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 05:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 39

Abstract

Broad Meadow Brook Wildlife Sanctuary (BMB) is a protected area that spans 395 acres of forest and wetlands, located in the interior of Worcester, Massachusetts; a densely urbanized city with a population above 185,000. BMB is one of the last remaining natural wetlands in Worcester, providing crucial habitat to many local species and regulating storm water flow to and from surrounding residential neighborhoods. For land managers, a knowledge gap exists between the current ecological function of BMB’s wetlands and its potential future function in the context of planned wetland restoration and new urban development nearby. This study uses land change analysis to inform an upcoming wetland restoration project at BMB. Land cover change was tracked over 45 years from 1971 to 2016 using historical land-use maps, and then forecasted from 2016 to 2061 to delineate future land use based on past trends. Next, land parcels that are vulnerable to future development were identified to determine those parcels most suitable for conservation. Lastly, vulnerable parcels that could be key in flood mitigation for BMB were located. Understanding the projected land changes and identifying vulnerable property will allow managers to create a restoration plan that honors the historical legacy of the land, while anticipating future changes.