Predicting the responses of Northern Gulf of Mexico coastal dune plant communities to climate change using ecological niche modeling

Keywords: climate change, coastal dune vegetation, ecological niche modeling, Gulf of Mexico, North America, species distributions
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 05:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 06:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 32

Abstract

Coastal dune vegetation is ubiquitous along sandy beaches of the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). In addition to supporting diverse biotic communities, these systems form a critical buffer zone and provide valuable ecosystem services to humans. Despite longstanding regional dune monitoring and restoration efforts, gaps remain in our ability to monitor and predict the future dynamics of these systems in response to multiple environmental stressors, including global climate change (GCC). However, ecological niche modeling can be useful for predicting suitable habitats for species under past, current, and future environmental conditions. Here, we modeled the bioclimatic niches of 14 dune plant species native to the NGOM. Analyses used occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and environmental data layers from WorldClim (current v2.1 data, future CMIP5 data), and species modeled niches were projected onto two GCC scenarios. Our findings suggested that suitable habitat for coastal dune plant species will likely be greatly reduced by the year 2070, especially for native foredune species (e.g. Iva imbricata, Spartina patens, Sesuvium portulacastrum). Likewise, backdune species (e.g. Ceratiola ericoides, Morella cerifera) were predicted to experience reduced suitable habitat near coastlines, but northern (Atlantic seaboard) or southern (central–southern Mexico) refugium areas were also consistently identified for these species. These findings corroborate and extend previous studies on Hydrocotyle bonariensis and the Western Gulf of Mexico. Future work would benefit from validating our models in the field as well as examining the interacting effects of sea-level rise and human land-use changes on suitable habitat areas.