Degrading foundations: Analyzing the impacts of and responses to climate change on permafrost infrastructure

Keywords: permafrost, climate change, infrastructure
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 03:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 05:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 49

Abstract

Permafrost underlies roughly a quarter of the land in the northern hemisphere, and hosts a large variation of settlements and industries. Different areas of the arctic are characterized by different types of infrastructure - Russia, which is home to 90% of the world’s arctic permafrost population, is characterized by larger industrial population centers, whereas North America and China boast extensive linear infrastructure networks. A combination of climate and anthropogenic factors have already resulted in significant damage to permafrost infrastructure, and projected increases in surface temperature and precipitation are expected to further exacerbate the issue. Using a subset of CMIP6 models, this study analyzes how changes in temperature and precipitation will impact infrastructure stability by the mid-21st century throughout permafrost zones in two primary ways - through ground subsidence and reduction of bearing capacity. Alaska, Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and the Yakutia and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs are predicted to undergo the most significant changes, although are likely to experience the impacts in varying ways. Accordingly, regions throughout the permafrost zone have developed context-specific methods of adapting to past and expected degradation through updated design codes and construction practices, maintenance techniques, and municipal infrastructure plans. Case studies in different permafrost regions are discussed in order to determine the spatial variation in infrastructure impacts, the resulting adaptation strategies, and to estimate the impacts on permafrost populations. Due to permafrost degradation, the useful lifespan of existing infrastructure is expected to sharply decline by mid-century.