Things Fall Apart: The Implications of Climate Change on the Inter-Ethnic Conflict and Marginalization of the Fulani Nomads of Niger

Keywords: The Republic of Niger, Fulani Pastoralists, Fulani, Arid Regions, Inter-ethnic conflict, Minority, Government, Displacement, Africa, Nomad,
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 03:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 05:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 49

Abstract

The Republic of Niger, located within the landlocked confines of the interior Sahel, is currently facing environmental and social disparities caused by climate change. The inter-annual variability of precipitation traces and increased temperature totals have burgeoned the further dwindling of arable land for cultivation. Thus, worsening the prospects of inter-ethnic conflict with the sedentary farming community and the country’s ethnic nomadic minority group - the Fulani pastoralists. Although the Nigerien government is cognizant in combatting the effects of climate change, these efforts have nonetheless metastasized into the heightened marginalization of the Fulani pastoralists through the medium of human rights violations and ethnic persecution proliferated by government corruption.

Through spatial and temporal analysis by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), the geographic confines of Niger will be analyzed. A nomenclature ensemble of representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 will be demonstrative of atmospheric feedback cycles while giving an outlook of how amplified climatic conditions such as extreme drought periods, varying annual precipitation, soil degradation, and other enhanced environmental factors can exacerbate the rudimentary social insecurities that this country faces.

It has been determined that the country will foresee a temperature increase of 3°C to 4°C by the end of the century. The combination of these environmental factors can potentially lead to significant security and diplomatic complications. Thus, the climatic displacement of the pastoralists will lead to inter-ethnic conflict, famine, terrorism, ethnic persecution, and potential ethnic cleansing of the Fulani nomads of Niger.