The impacts of projected temperature and precipitation change on crop water availability in Puerto Rico

Keywords: Puerto Rico, Agriculture, Climate Change
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 03:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 05:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 27

Abstract

Recent studies have suggested that farming systems in the Caribbean are vulnerable to climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, due to its relatively high dependence on rainfall. However, there is a need for more research investigating the local impacts of climate change on agriculture in the U.S. Caribbean. This work evaluated how temperature and precipitation projections could affect water crop need in Puerto Rico. We used Daymet Version 3 climate data to create a baseline climatology (1981–2010), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to create two future climatologies (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). The Thornthwaite water budget model was used to estimate water deficit, and the CROPRISK model to determine crop suitability for banana and plantain. Results indicated that water stress after 2041 is expected to be greater for most of the island during June–August, except for western Puerto Rico, where water deficit will be greater from January–March. For banana and plantain agroclimatic suitability, the most water-stressed season is projected to be January–July, for western and southern Puerto Rico, while the eastern and northern portions of the island should remain suitable for them most of the time. An understanding of the location and periods most sensitive to water stress and crop suitability in Puerto Rico should help local governments to better plan for agriculture to mitigate future food insecurity.