Future scenarios of deforestation for avocado expansion in Michoacán and its carbon consequences

Keywords: land use change, deforestation, commodity chains, avocado, Mexico
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 05:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 06:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 6

Abstract

Understanding land use change for avocado expansion in Michoacán, Mexico is vital to measuring the ecological impacts of the avocado boom. This study uses a DinamicaEGO land use change model to quantify past deforestation in Michoacán for avocado expansion and project future deforestation to the year 2050. Using four different climate change scenarios, this analysis elucidates different potential future scenarios for this landscape. Furthermore, carbon accounting estimates are applied to these future projections in order to understand how much ecosystem carbon may be lost to avocado expansion. Such an analysis highlights the importance of commodity chain governance that incorporates Michoacan’s socioecological context in order to incentivize protection of ecosystem services, such as the climate change mitigating effect of carbon sequestration and storage.